The book called The Black Swan by Nassim Nicholas Taleb finds many events are unpredictable and occur suddenly, and therefore have a large impact on our lives and thinking. All swans in Europe were white, leading to the paradigm that all swans are white. However the discovery of one black swan in Australia, changes all this leading to a new paradigm about swans. Black Swan events in history, geopolitics and science often occur ; they are unpredictable, they have a large impact, and they are usually only explained after the observation. Basically Taleb believes that our lack of knowledge is as important as our knowledge. If we know too much, then we make predictions which are usually a continuation of our present history. We really cannot predict: the stock market, world wars, epidemics, down to a sudden illness or a personal crisis: all are black swans. They can indicate either positive of negative events, but in all cases it is their suddenness that takes us by surprise and only then can we start to deal...
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